Industrial Is Normalizing. Your Rent Growth Assumption Should Too.
The numbers
National industrial net absorption came in at 122.7 million square feet for the first quarter, up 30% from a year earlier. Logistics users took 105.9 million of that, and Dallas-Fort Worth alone absorbed 29.9 million square feet. Strong figures by any standard.
Deliveries were still roughly double the leasing. Vacancy rose to 7.6%. Rent growth slowed to 1.3% year over year, which is below inflation. So demand is fine, supply is finishing what it started in 2022 and 2023, and pricing power has moved from landlords to tenants in most submarkets.
Why this is the healthy version of a slowdown
A market where absorption rises and vacancy also rises is a market digesting a construction pipeline. That is different from a market where tenants stop signing. The 2023 pipeline was built on rent growth assumptions of 8% to 12% a year. Those buildings are now delivering into a market growing rents at 1.3%. The buildings are fine. The pro formas that justified them are not.
If you own stabilized industrial with leases signed in 2021 or 2022, you are sitting on rents that are at or slightly above today's market in many submarkets. That flips the usual assumption. Instead of marking rents up 20% at rollover, you may be marking them flat or down a few percent. Check every lease expiring in the next 24 months against the current asking rents in the same park, not against the broker's "market rent" from the offering memorandum.
What to put in the model
Use 2% to 3% market rent growth for the first two years and let it drift up only if the submarket's pipeline is genuinely empty. Add a month or two of downtime to your rollover assumptions. Tenant improvement and free rent concessions have crept up, and a 24-month-old comp will understate them. If the building was delivered after 2023, assume the first-generation leases were signed with concessions that will not repeat, and model the second-generation deal honestly.
Dallas-Fort Worth is the exception that proves the point. It absorbed more space than most states and still has a heavy pipeline. Do not import Texas absorption into an Ohio model.
A note on the "normalizing" word
Brokers use it because it sounds calm. It is accurate. A 7.6% vacancy rate with positive absorption is roughly where the sector sat in 2015 and 2016, years when industrial was a good, steady, unexciting place to put money. It is becoming that again. The people who get hurt are the ones still underwriting 2021.
Find out what your leases actually say before the broker does
The question for an industrial owner this year is simple: which of my leases expire in the next 24 months, at what rent, with what options, and how does that compare to the asking rents in the park today. Answering it by hand means opening every lease, finding the rent schedule and the renewal clause, and typing the numbers into a spreadsheet. For a 30-building portfolio that is a week of work and it is wrong in at least a few places.
Run the leases through an abstraction tool and the expiration ladder, the option terms and the rent schedules come out as a table in an hour, each figure linked to the clause it came from. Then the renewal conversations start 18 months early with the right numbers, the below-market renewal options get flagged before they are exercised, and nobody finds out about a 2019 amendment that changed the escalation after the tenant has already invoked it. The time saved is real. The mistakes avoided are worth more.