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Expert guides, tutorials, and analysis for commercial real estate professionals.
The apartment supply wave that started in 2022 has crested. Absorption is now running ahead of deliveries. That is the first piece of good news the 2021 vintage of apartment loans has had in three years. It may have come a year late.
Five years ago the empty Sears at the end of the mall was a liability. Today it is the reason the mall is worth 13% more than last year. The math on a vacant anchor box has changed completely.
The hike was priced in weeks ago. The dot plot showing sixteen of eighteen officials expecting another one was not. The first fact moves nothing. The second reprices every loan maturing in 2027.
The economy added the most jobs since March. The sectors that fill office buildings shed 24,000 of them. If you own office, the headline number is not your number.
The delinquency rate has stopped climbing. The special servicing rate has not. Loans are being worked out as fast as new ones arrive, and the workout pile is the biggest it has been in thirteen years.
The new Fed chair used his first Jackson Hole speech to say the quiet part. Inflation is not at target, the trend has not improved, and rates may go up. The exit cap rate in every ten-year model just moved.
The retail distress cycle is over for most categories. It is just starting for restaurants. If a third of your center's rent comes from food, the national numbers are not your numbers.
Inflation cooled a tenth. That was the good news this week. The other news is a maturity calendar that puts more than $14 billion of office debt with no extension rights into the last three months of the year.
Office got the headlines for three years. This month the biggest jump was in apartments, and it came from exactly the loans everyone knew were coming: 2021 bridge debt on value-add deals underwritten at 3.5% rates.
A 9-3 vote to hold, with all three dissents wanting a hike, is not a hold. It is a hike with a two-month delay. The market read it that way. So should a borrower with a floating-rate loan.
The largest industrial landlord in the world just had its best leasing quarter ever, in a market where rent growth is 1.3%. Those two facts fit together, and they explain how to run a warehouse in 2026.
Energy gave back some of the spring shock and the monthly CPI print went negative. A negative print does strange things to leases indexed to it. Most property managers have never seen one.
The headline rate improved. The rate that includes loans past their maturity date rose. Both are true. The second one describes the market you are actually in.
Every midyear report used some version of the phrase 'measured confidence.' It is a hedge that happens to be accurate. Here is what it means for a buyer, a seller and a lender in the second half of 2026.
Two vacancy rates came out the same week. One is a slow recovery. The other is a shortage so severe it is reshaping who bids for land. They are happening in the same metros, and they are connected.
The June hold surprised no one. The projections did. When the median forecast moves from a cut to a hike, every model that used 'rates fall in the second half' as its base case needs a new base case.
Two downtown Miami office buildings will be auctioned in July after a foreclosure judgment 60% above the loan's principal. The gap is default interest and fees. The recovery depends on what is in the leases.
REIT executives spend REITweek saying the same thing to investors in thirty-minute blocks for three days. When 160 of them converge on a message, it is worth writing down. This year the message was cautious and specific.
The conversion pipeline grew 28% this year. The buildings that actually convert share a few physical traits, and a spreadsheet cannot fix a building that lacks them. Here is the screen we use before anyone opens a model.
The ICSC show floor this year had as many software booths as brokerage booths. Most of the pitches sounded the same. Here are the seven questions that separate a tool that will work in your portfolio from a demo that will not.
The headline delinquency rate barely moved in May. Underneath it, mid-sized office loans kept sliding into special servicing. Most borrowers meet a special servicer for the first time with no idea how the process works. This is the walkthrough.
Inflation came in at 3.8%. The 10-year sits at 4.32%. And retail real estate just posted the best rent growth of any sector. There is a reason, and it is not consumer strength.
In January Wall Street expected three rate cuts this year. By the end of April it expected maybe one. Every loan maturing in 2026 was underwritten on the January view. Here is the arithmetic for the other one.
A retailer's capital plan is the most useful document a landlord never reads. Target published one this month. Here is what it says about who has the negotiating power in retail leasing right now.
When sublease space in a trophy tower asks more than most Class A direct rents, the office market is not recovering evenly. It is splitting. This week's deals show where the two halves are heading.
Industrial spent four years as the sector that could do no wrong. The first-quarter numbers show a market that is healthy and ordinary at the same time. Underwrite it as ordinary.
Every acquisition and refinancing runs on estoppel certificates, and most people involved have only a rough idea of what they do. This guide explains what an estoppel says, why buyers and lenders insist on it, and where the process breaks.
AI in commercial real estate has moved past the demo stage into daily use. An honest account of where it helps, where it does not, and what to check before buying a tool.
One missed lease deadline can cost more than a year of management fees. This guide covers every type of critical date in a commercial lease, what happens when one is missed, and how to build a tracking system that does not depend on memory.
Nobody underwrote a Strait of Hormuz disruption in January. By late March the 10-year had moved, deals were pausing and expense budgets were wrong. Here is how the shock travels through a pro forma.
Tracking tenant insurance certificates is the property management task most likely to be neglected and most expensive when it fails. This guide covers what to check on every certificate, how to build a renewal workflow, and where software has replaced the spreadsheet.
The cap rate is the most quoted number in commercial real estate and one of the most misused. This guide covers the formula, what moves cap rates, ranges by property type, and the situations where a cap rate tells you the wrong thing.
CAM reconciliation eats more property management hours than any other annual task, and it produces more tenant disputes. This is how the process works, where it goes wrong, and what has changed.
A lease abstract turns a 50 to 100 page commercial lease into a structured summary of the terms that matter. This guide covers which fields to extract, who relies on abstracts, what separates a good one from a dangerous one, and how software has changed the work.
Triple net leases carry most retail and industrial real estate. This guide explains what tenants actually pay, how pro rata shares work, and where the math gets complicated: caps, stops, gross-ups and controllable expense splits.
The LOI is where the economics of a lease get decided. By the time lawyers see the lease, the business terms are locked. This guide covers the clauses that matter, how each side reads them, and the mistakes that cost the most.
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