DCF Calculator
Discounted cash flow analysis for commercial real estate. Project NOI, estimate terminal value, and calculate present value. Free, instant, no login required.
What is a DCF Analysis in Commercial Real Estate?
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is the institutional standard for valuing income-producing commercial real estate. It projects a property's net operating income (NOI) over a defined hold period, estimates a terminal sale value (reversion), and discounts all future cash flows back to present value using a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Unlike a simple cap rate valuation that provides a single-period snapshot, DCF captures NOI growth, lease rollovers, capital expenditures, and exit timing to produce a more comprehensive estimate of intrinsic value.
How to Calculate Terminal Value in a DCF
The terminal value (or reversion) represents the estimated sale price at the end of the hold period. It is calculated using the direct capitalization method:
Terminal Value = Next Year NOI / Terminal Cap Rate
The terminal cap rate is typically set 25-75 basis points above the going-in cap rate to reflect the aging of the asset. Costs of sale (usually 2-3%) are then deducted to arrive at net reversion proceeds.
The present value of the terminal sale often represents 50-70% of the total DCF value, making the terminal cap rate assumption one of the most sensitive inputs in the analysis.
What Discount Rate Should I Use?
The discount rate reflects the risk-adjusted return an investor requires for the specific asset. Typical ranges by strategy:
Core (Stabilized)
6.0% - 7.5%
Core Plus
7.5% - 9.0%
Value-Add
9.0% - 11.0%
Opportunistic
11.0% - 15.0%
The discount rate should exceed the risk-free rate (10-year Treasury) by a risk premium that accounts for illiquidity, credit risk, and market volatility. Most institutional investors build up their discount rate using a risk-free rate plus a property-specific risk premium.
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